The history of palm oil has been a long time, but it has not been photographed in the top few in terms of oil consumption. Why has it suddenly developed in the past 20 years? If there is a big cow who can talk about the relationship between human evolution and oil consumption, it is even better! !
The palm oil industry chain is like this. A seed, after 3-4 years, grows into palm trees, produces palm fruit, palm pulp extracts palm oil (CPO), palm kernel extracts palm kernel oil (PKO) , palm oil (CPO) is a red liquid, after heating, extraction, refining, can make different melting point of edible palm oil, with the melting point named 38 degrees (melting point 38 degrees oil), 24 degrees (melting point is 24 The oil of the degree), 12 degrees, and so on, and other private enterprises have already extracted 0 degrees of palm oil, which should be the first case in the country.
1. The price is cheap. I have to say that palm oil is really cheap, the main reasons are:
a. The yield per unit is high: the oil yield of palm oil (calculated as CPO) should be 20-22%, which is only the average. In some areas of certain plantations, it should be able to reach a bunch of palm fruits. String (in the industry called “fresh fruit bunch” English FFB) oil output rate reached 30% and other extreme values. Soybeans and peanuts, which are oil crops, have a very low oil yield, and soybeans are about 16%, even if they are very high.
b. The average cost is low: Mr. kidsoya/Ms. said that the cost of palm is extremely low, and I agree and disagree. The agreement is that from the 25 years of the entire business cycle, the average total cost of amortization is indeed very low. Indonesia and Malaysia are both privately owned. The land is bought by you. If the amortization is 100 years, the cost of land acquisition is almost zero. From this perspective, the cost is not high.
However, I disagree: the demand for funds in the first three years is extremely high, and the cost of planting and development is extremely high. In theory, a plantation needs about 10,000 hectares or more to be scaled up. Usually, a crushing plant is needed. The plantation takes land, develops plants, builds factories, etc., and the approximate cost is 1.2-150 million US dollars / 10,000 hectares. Even if it is 120 million US dollars, if you invest in it, you will not see any slight economic return for at least the first 3 years. If you buy the wasteland, you will burn the vegetation above. If it is a swamp, you should drain it and level it. Land, these costs are very high, often thrown in hundreds of millions of dollars, but found that the plantation has not yet formed a scale that can be planted. . During this period, we have to pay wages (of course, local wages in Indonesia are not high), buy fertilizer, nursery, etc., all need money. Fixed assets investment + working capital in the first three years, the total amount of funds eaten is not affordable for the average company. Affordable.
2. Wide range of uses and large demand.
a. Widely used: Palm fruit is actually a treasure, meat can be oiled, kernel can also be oiled, and the remaining fruit squeeze (empty fruit string) can also generate electricity, make mats, etc., a whole body can produce economic value.
If you eat : Do you think that we are eating peanut oil, soybean oil, blending oil, how to get palm oil? You are wrong, you are eating palm oil all the time. Do you eat fritters in the morning? The fried fritters are palm oil (palm oil is more resistant to high temperatures, suitable for repeated frying, and cheap), do you cook at night? Use blending oil? 1:1:1? Well, the base oil is definitely palm oil, why? Cheap! 50L palm oil, +15 liters of soybean oil + 15L of peanut oil + 15L of rapeseed oil. Well, you get 95L of blended oil, but definitely won’t tell you how much palm oil is in the oil. Add 50L of palm oil. Adding 80L of palm oil is also added. In this respect, the national law is still blank (the law does not require the specific content of blending oil to be written). You have nothing to eat a snack, chocolate, rice balls, ice cream, etc. Do you think it is made of cream? pattern! Palm kernel oil of palm kernel, palm kernel itself has a rich and sweet smell, and the extracted oil is mainly used in dessert.
Industrial words: oleochemicals, fuel coatings, all need palm oil, to know that a little chemical industrial products, may need a few hundred pounds of palm oil, but it does not matter, palm oil is cheap, flat or low cost. More importantly, the huge demand for palm oil comes from biodiesel . When palm oil is cheap, it is simply and rudely accumulated in quantity to extract combustible diesel oil (in theory, all oils support burning), so do palm oil bulk. Commodities know that the price of palm oil is highly correlated with oil. Because of a substitution effect, oil is expensive, gasoline and diesel are expensive, and looking for biodiesel refined from palm oil as a substitute, then the price of palm oil is suddenly raised. Conversely, cheaper palm oil is cheaper. There is a law in Indonesia and Malay that gasoline must be blended with biodiesel in a certain proportion (called B10, that is, 10% biodiesel or B15 in petrochemical fuel, or 15% added). The huge demand for fuel is much larger than the consumption of ordinary people.
In fact, some people say that the palm oil industry is a perfect smile curve, that is, the profit is upstream and downstream, and the middle processing profit is not high. I think palm oil is the perfect J curve, that is, most of the profits of the entire industrial chain are planted and developed upstream. The intermediate processing and refined profit is not high, almost meager profit or slight loss. The downstream trade is slightly better than the intermediate processing. At one point, it can still be a state of small profits, and a net profit of 4% can be said to be a very good performance .
But upstream development is a work of once and for all, and palm planting is a profiteering industry. We said that a plantation requires 10,000 hectares + a crushing plant. The total cost is more than 100 million US dollars. Such a large number of companies will scare away when they listen to it. Moreover, can you meet a plantation of 10,000 hectares? Sorry, you can’t even count the younger brother in the industry. Without 80-100,000 hectares of mature plantations in hand, I dare to speak loudly in the international market, and more than 200,000 will dare to participate in pricing. Even so, with the giants such as Jinguang and Fengyi International, there are 4,600,000 hectares of plantations. Than, it’s still a long way off.
However, as long as you have passed the development period of the first 3-4 years, the next 20 years will be sitting to collect money, lying down to collect money, and fancy to collect money. Why, because almost no large-scale capital investment is needed anymore, and palm oil is still in the rigid demand for food, as the world’s second largest consumer oil, the only place that can be planted is 5-8 degrees latitude in the equator. The price is definitely not going to fall below the cost. After entering the high yield period in the 4th to 5th years, your oil can be said to be dumped all over the world, because the demand is definitely greater than the supply. At this time, your cost is the annual operating costs of fertilizer, wages, etc., and these costs can be covered by sales revenue. The gross profit margin of the palm-growing industry is 30%-40%. It is a very common figure. At this historical low price of palm oil, a mature plantation net profit rate of 10-20% is no problem. At a high price, the 50% net interest rate is a very normal number, and even 100% in individual times!
In fact, we think that palm oil is only 20 years old, but palm commercial planting has been 100 years old, and it is a highly standardized industry.. Whose colony was Indonesia and Malay? The Dutch (the Dutch in Europe, not the plains of central China), the Dutch and the Germans belonged to the same family in the era of European blood and blood. The cautiousness and carefulness in the bones are deeply rooted. The Dutch colonized Indonesia and did the work? It is a kind of palm (of course they only found the oil palm crop in Indonesia). How to plant a seed, how to transplant a seedling, how to pick a palm fruit, cut it at what angle, cut what is cut first, how to analyze the condition of the tree all year round, how to analyze the grain of the leaf, etc., as early as 100 years Previously, the Dutch set a highly standardized operating process and research rules for the palm industry. Ask an industry expert to ensure scientific field management, not to catch up with special weather conditions (such as 15 years of El Niño) basically your annual net profit is 10 million US dollars – 20 million US dollars.
Therefore, in the palm planting industry, there are almost no Chinese people doing it (now there are, but there are very few in the country), why? Eat me so much money, the payback period is so long, who will do it! But they didn’t see it. After the investment is fully recovered, you have to spend a lot of money every day, and you don’t have to pay extra. If you have a few more plantations, you, your son, your daughter, you two Son, your second daughter, … the job every day is to spend money to spend money. . . . I have invested hundreds of millions of yuan in one year, and I really earned money when I lay down.